Kaoboy Musings

Kaoboy Musings

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Re: Oil-Deep Dive & The Supply/Demand Singularity Revisited.
Pun intended on the "Deep Dive" part -- at least in the short-term. Read further to find out what I think the future holds for Oil.
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Michael Kao
20
Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.
Why a Strong USD Policy is a far more potent geopolitical lever against China rather than traditional sanctions. Beware the BALL in a China Shop …
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Michael Kao
25
Re: Investing - Opening The Kimono: 2023 In Review.
I seldom talk about my Micro/Idiosyncratic bets, but I "open the kimono" here as I talk both Micro/Macro and share some thoughts on 2024. Think of this…
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Michael Kao
28
West Point Paper -- Part 1/4
"US Dollar Primacy in an Age of Economic Warfare"
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Michael Kao
9
Re: Geopolitics/Demographics/Inflation - The Great Power Competition Between US & China.
On May 11, 2023, I chaired a private event discussing this globally important topic with a panel of experts. This is a synopsis of that event, with…
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Michael Kao
27
Re: Mental Models - Navigating The Asteroid Field With Trump 2.0.
The "Never Tell Me The Odds" Trump 2.0 Administration is attempting to put the country on a new trajectory. It's a fraught path through an asteroid…
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Michael Kao
30
Kaoboy Musings on Substack is back!
Cutting in the Sub-Light Engines and Exiting TwitterSpace...
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Michael Kao
25
Re: Oil/Investing - Lessons From The Oil Patch / Will Atlas Shrug?
This is a retrospective on some of the lessons I've learned over my career in investing and hedging in the Oil & Gas space.
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Michael Kao
14
Re: Macro/USD/Oil/Geopolitics - The Battle of the BADS.
A tour of the key Scylla/Charybdis Dilemmas facing major policymakers on the world stage. As you will see, the policy choices in most cases are between…
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Michael Kao
33
Re: Investing - Is Alpha a Mirage in a Desert of Beta?
Generating True Alpha is as difficult as finding water in a desert; most people's notions of Alpha are really "Beta Hitchhiking." Discussion of Alpha…
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Michael Kao
15
Re: Inflation/USD - The Four Horsemen of US Resilience Will Make the Fed an Uneven "Distributor of Pain."
US Resilience is going to force the Fed to break RoW first, and the Fed will become an Uneven "Distributor of Pain" through the USD Wrecking Ball…
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Michael Kao
9
Re: Mental Models - Valuation/Risk Drivers of Financial Assets As Partial Derivatives.
Don't let the title scare you. This Mental Model from Calculus is extremely powerful in understanding the Drivers for Valuation and Risk for ALL…
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Michael Kao
5
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