This is a retrospective on some of the lessons I've learned over my career in investing and hedging in the Oil & Gas space.
This is great. Thank you so much for cataloging your journey. Many lessons herein and I for one am most appreciative that you generously share them.
This past year has certainly taught me some hard lessons in investing in O&G. Much of that has had to do with fed/Cb policy and other macro impacts I didn't full understand or respect. Fortunate enough to be young in my investing career learning these lesson through my trading and reading as much as I can about others experiences. Your musings have been invaluable in that learning. Thanks for another great post!
Fantastic article Michael! So true macro events can quickly overtake price taking industries. Thanks for taking the time to compose.
This is a truly great post. Oil sounds so easy with all the talk of declining drilling, ESG impacts, etc, but it is incredibly tough to figure out what data matters. I have realized I have no informational or analytical edge when it comes to oil.
Great piece! I remember Breitburn. Lost a bundle on that one! ;)
Great reminder that some equities/sectors are investment tuna and some are trading tuna. The energy sector is definitely trading tuna - especially at the commonn equity level.
Stellar post! Thank you Michael!
I plan to re read in a week to make sure I fully assimilate these lessons.
I have to admit that I’ve found myself wanting the O&G space to be more simplistic than it actually is. Either out ignorance or mental laziness. Or both!
Thanks for the potent reminders!
Whether you like my Atlas reference or my Marcellus Wallace reference, the question remains:
How long before MbS tires of being someone else’s bitch?
Tank you for this great Reading.
Pls allow 1 question.
Isnt the following sentence contradictory?
Accordingly, I expect the CNY to continue to devalue, which will send a deflationary pulse for all goods — especially Procyclical Commodities like Oil that are USD-denominated.
I would rather expect that due to CNY devaluation oil prices in China to go up.
do you work with BioDentify? Improves planning recovery, by focusing on "richer" / high permeability zones in Permian