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KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.

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Michael Kao

Jul 12, 2023

5/13/21 - Re: Oil/Inflation-“Are we headed for Weimar, or is it just Hyperinflation Hyperventilation?” / Our Geographic Advantages.

Re: Oil/Inflation-“Are we headed for Weimar, or is it just Hyperinflation Hyperventilation?” / Our Geographic Advantages.

Michael Kao

May 13, 2021

Re: Oil/Inflation-“Are we headed for Weimar, or is it just Hyperinflation Hyperventilation?” / Our Geographic Advantages.

My Thesis: It will create inflation for sure, but this in and of itself will force a self- correcting negative feedback loop that may prick asset bubbles but will prevent a much worse positive feedback loop that eventually breaks the system. When you analyze a company’s creditworthiness, you have to focus not just on its cashflow/income statements, but a…

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6/12/21 - Re: Geopolitics-US Army War College/National Security Seminar Learnings.

Re: Geopolitics-US Army War College/National Security Seminar Learnings.

Michael Kao

June 13, 2021

Re: Geopolitics-US Army War College/National Security Seminar Learnings.

In a parallel universe, had I not gone down the road of finance/investing, I might have wound up working in intelligence or some kind of geopolitical thinktank. Needless to say, I was thrilled to be nominated to participate in this year’s NSS. The USAWC is an elite institution that provides a master’s degree in Strategic Studies for senior military offic…

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8/13/21 - Re: China/Taiwan-The CCP Propaganda Machine Is Cranking.

Re: China/Taiwan-The CCP Propaganda Machine Is Cranking.

Michael Kao

September 1, 2021

Re: China/Taiwan-The CCP Propaganda Machine Is Cranking.

In the aftermath of our Afghanistan debacle, the local news in Taiwan is bracing for similar abandonment by the US – with good reason. That’s not the shocking part. What’s shocking is the receptivity to this fate by the older generation. According to her sources in Taiwan, the older generation of Chinese (like her parents) in Taiwan identify as "Chinese"…

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3/13/22 - Re: USD Wrecking Ball World Tour & The CNY Facade.

Re: USD Wrecking Ball World Tour & The CNY Facade.

Michael Kao

March 14, 2022

Re: USD Wrecking Ball World Tour & The CNY Facade.

I’ve written about the determinants of RELATIVE value for currencies. While Debt/GDP is one factor, a myriad of other factors go into the determinants of “safety and soundness.” This thread talks about geographical/geopolitical determinants of value:

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7/5/22 - Re: Geopolitics/Oil-Conversation With Velina Tchakarova.

Re: Geopolitics/Oil-Conversation With Velina Tchakarova.

Michael Kao

July 6, 2022

Re: Geopolitics/Oil-Conversation With Velina Tchakarova.

Russia will NOT stop its current incursion into Ukraine until it has FULL CONTROL of the Donbas region. Then, and only then, will Russia potentially proclaim a unilateral ceasefire to "give itself a break." Importantly, this will most likely happen on Russia’s terms and NOT because of any demands from the West. She is not seeing any near-term paths to de…

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10/8/22 - Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames.

Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames.

Michael Kao

October 9, 2022

Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames.

I am not just talking about the obvious geopolitical conflicts like Russia/Ukraine or China/Taiwan/US. I am talking about conflicting ECONOMIC incentives between regions even among traditionally allied economic/geopolitical blocs. STRUCTURAL INFLATION is at the HEART of the matter, not just from an energy/resource scarcity dynamic, but also from the CONF…

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2/18/23 - Re: Geopolitics / West Point Symposium on Great Power Competition with China.

Re: Geopolitics / West Point Symposium on Great Power Competition with China.

Michael Kao

Feb 18

Re: Geopolitics / West Point Symposium on Great Power Competition with China.

The two-day symposium kicked off at West Point Military Academy in the historic Haig Room of Jefferson Hall, named after former Secretary of State and retired General Alexander Haig. The choice of West Point itself, considered by George Washington to be “the most strategic location in America” during the War for Independence, was fitting for this sympos…

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2/25/23 - West Point Paper: “US Dollar Primacy in an Era of Economic Warfare”

West Point Paper -- Part 1/4

Michael Kao

Feb 25

Introduction US national security is now firmly focused on Great Power Competition (GPC) and how to reorient policies to face the country’s challengers. Competition with China in particular is now front- of-mind, but the list of additional challengers will likely grow. The US-led Rules-Based Order (RBO) is changing in an increasingly multipolar world. Ne…

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3/11/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

Michael Kao

Mar 11

Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

While the past week in the financial markets has revolved around the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and the ramifications therein, I personally don’t think the extremely poor risk management practices of a bank focused on banking the most speculative sector of the economy will lead to a major domestic banking crisis. Consequently, I do not believe it der…

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4/7/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac?

Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac?

Michael Kao

Apr 7

Dictionary.com defines “Bric-a-Brac” as “miscellaneous objects and ornaments of little value.” Despite all the recent hyperbole about the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations forming a challenger to the USD, I believe it will amount closer to "Bric-a-Brac” than GRC contender.

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5/6/23 - Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.

Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.

Michael Kao

May 6

Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.

The Clash of the Titans between the Fed & OPEC+ could cause a Toxic Tug-of-War between Inflation and Deflation with a "Squid Game" outcome. I will build my case with several key observations.Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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6/17/23 - Re: Geopolitics/Demographics/Inflation - The Great Power Competition Between US & China.

Re: Geopolitics/Demographics/Inflation - The Great Power Competition Between US & China.

Michael Kao

Jun 17

Re: Geopolitics/Demographics/Inflation - The Great Power Competition Between US & China.

Introduction As a child of parents who fled from China to Taiwan in 1949 and then immigrated to the United States, you could say that I’ve been following the topic of US/China/Taiwan relations closely my entire personal and professional life. The global

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