* Investing Substack Directory *
1/29/21 - Re: Investing-Meme Stocks & The Importance of Shorting.
Re: Investing-Meme Stocks & The Importance of Shorting.
When short- selling was banned in 2008, bona fide hedgers could no longer short equity against their portfolios. These portfolios could be comprised of distressed bonds, convertibles, options, or other equities. Inability to hedge then forces long liquidation of LESS LIQUID assets, like credit.
3/2/21 - Re: Investing-Deep Dive on SPACS.
Re: Investing-Deep Dive on SPACS.
I’ll label the current wave “SPAC Mania 2.0” and compare it to “SPAC Mania 1.0” (roughly the period of 2005-2010). This thread encapsulates some of my findings/observations. Thoughts welcome. First off, SPAC Mania 2.0 is much bigger. 2020 marked first year that SPAC IPOs meaningfully outpaced traditional IPOs, raising $83B. 2021 trends so far point to an…
7/1/21 - Re: Investing-Exit Strategies/When To HODL.
Re: Investing-Exit Strategies/When To HODL.
This thread addresses 4 categories of Exit Strategies and when it’s appropriate to HODL. The 4 Exit Strategies are: 1) Replicating Portfolio, 2) Event-Driven, 3) “Greater Fool” Backed By Fundamentals, 4) “Greater Fool” Backed Only By Technicals. Let me explain.
10/6/21 - Re: Investing-Lessons From Bernard Baruch.
Re: Investing-Lessons From Bernard Baruch.
This thread focuses on Bernard Baruch (1870-1965), an extraordinarily successful speculator who was a contemporary of the legendary Jesse Livermore. Analyzing Losses: 1) Have new conditions arisen to require change? 2) Have I lost sight of the main thesis and getting lost in distractions? 3) What have I learned to avoid making the same mistakes?
2/22/23 - Re: Investing Lessons - A Compilation.
Re: Investing Lessons - A Compilation.
Many of these Musings have previously appeared as individual Musings on Twitter in the past, but I have cleaned them up and collated them here and plan on keeping this list refreshed. I find that re-reading them periodically helps my own process, so I have collated them here. Please feel free to bookmark this link and check back every once in a while fo…
3/26/23 - Re: Inflation/USD/USTs – “Risk-Free” Riskiness & Austrian Pipe Dreams.
Re: Inflation/USD/USTs – “Risk-Free” Riskiness & Austrian Pipe Dreams.
In recent weeks, I have read many incorrect and misleading takes on Twitter by folks who are decrying recent interest rate volatility as some kind of “false advertising” of the term “Risk-Free” when it comes to US Treasury securities (USTs). These takes go something like this:
6/7/23 - Re: Oil/Investing - Lessons From The Oil Patch / Will Atlas Shrug?
Re: Oil/Investing - Lessons From The Oil Patch / Will Atlas Shrug?
Investing in cyclical industries, especially Commodity Cyclicals, can be a very tricky business. You can get the Micro-fundamentals right but get killed by Macroeconomic Black Swans. Conversely, you can get the Macro direction right but still get blindsided by Micro issues at the Company/Regional level and/or unexpected Geopolitical developments.
7/15/23 - Re: Investing - Bottoms Up (Hic!) Macro / Different Styles For Different Situations / Getting Paid To Wait.
Re: Investing - Bottoms Up (Hic!) Macro / Different Styles For Different Situations / Getting Paid To Wait.
One of my pet peeves is when people use the misnomer “Bottoms Up Investing” when they really mean “Bottom-Up Investing”; the former connotes investing after imbibing copious amounts of alcohol, and the latter connotes Fundamental Analysis! That said, “Bottoms Up Investing” perfectly illustrates the Irrationally Inebriant Macro environment thus far in 20…
12/24/23 - Re: Investing - Opening The Kimono: 2023 In Review.
Re: Investing - Opening The Kimono: 2023 In Review.
When I ran my fund, I always wrote a comprehensive portfolio review at year-end to my investors, which helped me evaluate my own performance objectively while developing some thoughts for the coming year In that spirit, I will write a similar missive this year by describing how/where I made and lost money this year in both Micro/Idiosyncratic Bets (which…
2/23/24 - Re: Investing - Private Credit & The Ostrich Effect.
Re: Investing - Private Credit & The Ostrich Effect.
The Explosive Growth of Private Credit Private Credit is all the rage these days among Yield Investors, and in recent days I’ve had a number of discussions/debates about the merits of Private Credit investments vs. other Yield Vehicles that invest in more traditional Leveraged Credit, like High Yield and Leveraged Loans.
3/6/24 - Re: Investing - Institutionalizing the "Elephant Through A Mousehole."
Re: Investing - Institutionalizing the "Elephant Through A Mousehole."
Every cycle is different, so I don’t want to get too lost in the weeds in comparing present era market dynamics to the Dot Com Bubble in terms of valuations, prevalence of IPOs (or lack thereof), or the underlying Tech/Macro drivers. I also promise to not commit the heinous chart crime of overlaying one period of price action to another. To me, the dang…
5/8/24 - Re: Investing - “Alpha With Asymmetry.”
Re: Investing - "Alpha With Asymmetry."
This piece is about the experiences that influenced and developed the investment philosophy that guided me throughout my career and continues to inform the way that I invest today. In short, the goal is: “Alpha With Asymmetry.” During business school, I had a particularly impactful summer internship at Harvard Management Company (HMC), the investment manager of the Harvard Endowment, then run by Jack Meyer (who later founded Convexity Capital).
6/1//24 - Re: Investing - Is Alpha a Mirage in a Desert of Beta?
Re: Investing - Is Alpha a Mirage in a Desert of Beta?
In the world of finance, Alpha is the Holy Grail. Everyone talks about it, everyone wants it, but few truly understand it. It's the mystical measure of an investment's performance compared to a market index, a sort of “secret sauce” that separates the Titans of Wall Street from Mere Mortals. Yet, in reality, generating True Alpha is as difficult as find…
6/22/24 - Re: Investing - "Rumpelstiltskin Risks" & Why Not All Securitizations Are Created Equal.
Re: Investing - "Rumpelstiltskin Risks" & Why Not All Securitizations Are Created Equal.
There have been some alarmist comments and articles about "CLOs imploding" recently, implying the beginnings of Credit Contagion. This piece dispels those rumors but explains why you still must be vigilant of the "Rumpelstiltskin Risk" in Securitizations. Most importantly, this piece aims to demonstrate why not all Securitizations and CLOs are created e…
Re: Investing/Mental Models - The Perils of Surfing the S(e)ine.
Ah, Paris! The city of lights, love, and lanes clogged with scooters. I recently returned from a delightful trip to this iconic metropolis, brimming with baguettes, culture, and, of course, the majestic Seine River. As I wandered along its banks, a thought struck me—what if we could surf the Seine? This whimsical idea soon morphed into a mathematical Mu…
Re: Fannie/Freddie - Trump Trade or CHUMP Trade?
My firm was one of the earliest buyers of distressed GSE Prefs during the GFC, but I'm no longer a believer today. This piece is about Restructurings, Fulcrum Securities, and Coercive Capital Raises.
Re: Investing - MBI: Will Lightning Strike a Third Time?
Lightning struck the same place twice in MBI in 2023/2024 and may yet strike a third time. This is a live case study on Restructurings, Creditor-On-Creditor Violence, and “Event Optionality."