A confluence of factors, led by ESG mandates of the last decade, has created an Energy Achilles' Heel for America, and the AI race may end up being one of the key arrows in that Heel.
"The Gretaverse has actually created an Energy Achilles’ Heel for America." I think this was the plan of the Gretaverse, specifically to weaken the hated USA and the west. We (not me) fell for it hook, line and sinker. Somehow they took our superpower - oil and NG and told us that it was evil and that we can't use it. Before that, they managed to kill off the entire nuclear industry and all the research and development for the last 50 years.
The key to our mistake is electrifying first, without a comprehensive plan. Had we made a plan, like modernize the grid, ensure adequate base-load power production (nuclear, coal, gas), then added niceties like wind, solar and geothermal WHERE IT MAKES SENSE, then we would be much better off.
The key metric of the wealth of societies is cheap, reliable power! Look at poverty rates around the world and you will see that nations with abundant, cheap power thrive, while much of the rest of the world lives in squalor.
In the end, I think it was a masterstroke by Russia and China to fund the ESG movement and turn the USA against itself. Think of all that money we chose to allocate prematurely and poorly to "green energy" instead of what we should have done. Oh and lest you blame it all on AI power demand, we were already on this track before that. How convenient that China holds all the REE cards now.
I live in the PMJ grid area and most of our problems here are poor planning and poor choices made by politicians. You know who is hurt by high energy prices? The poor and middle class. I can afford these high prices, but the lower rungs suffer the most. For all the bluster from some politicians that the dreaded billionaires are the cause of all evils, all the politicians need to do is look in the mirror. It is politicians who make nuclear expensive. It is not inherently expensive, it is all the NIMBYism that causes the expense. In China they just build it.
Interesting you say "Russia and china to fund the esg movement" - from my own research it makes absolute sense for them to do so (dependence on china for renewables etc, anti fracking in Europe, deindustrialization , etc), but I can't find any real indication that they have funded it overwhelmingly.
Do you know of any?
Pretty sure they do it by funding NGOs (main target supranational like EU/UN), but seems to be heavily obfuscated
The natural gas dependency angle is what people miss completely when they talk about electrification. Everyone focuses on the clean energy narrative, but the practical reality is we're just shifting from liquid fuels to a different hydrocarbon with tighter supply constraints. Been tracking Haynesville activity since mid-2024 and the producer discipline around sub-$2.50 pricing is totally different than 2010s behavior. The LNG export arb opening up is what changes the game structurally, tho it'll be messy getting there. One thing worth watching is how fast utilities pivot back to gas when SMR timelines keep slipping, because that transmission queue backlog is areal constraint that doesn't get solved with just money.
lng glut ahead? lng plants being cancelled. The most recent significant cancellation is __Energy Transfer's ____Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana__, suspended in December 2025 to focus on pipeline infrastructure, though it remains open to third-party development. Other recent cancellations/pauses include New Fortress Wyalusing (USA), confirmed stopped in late 2025, and Exxon's Mozambique LNG project faces delays due to security issues, with public updates canceled in late 2025.
Great piece. I am also looking to play it via oilfield services firms that should get a boost to activity from the growing demand (while not being as levered to oil/gas prices). WFRD is my top pick.
"The Gretaverse has actually created an Energy Achilles’ Heel for America." I think this was the plan of the Gretaverse, specifically to weaken the hated USA and the west. We (not me) fell for it hook, line and sinker. Somehow they took our superpower - oil and NG and told us that it was evil and that we can't use it. Before that, they managed to kill off the entire nuclear industry and all the research and development for the last 50 years.
The key to our mistake is electrifying first, without a comprehensive plan. Had we made a plan, like modernize the grid, ensure adequate base-load power production (nuclear, coal, gas), then added niceties like wind, solar and geothermal WHERE IT MAKES SENSE, then we would be much better off.
The key metric of the wealth of societies is cheap, reliable power! Look at poverty rates around the world and you will see that nations with abundant, cheap power thrive, while much of the rest of the world lives in squalor.
In the end, I think it was a masterstroke by Russia and China to fund the ESG movement and turn the USA against itself. Think of all that money we chose to allocate prematurely and poorly to "green energy" instead of what we should have done. Oh and lest you blame it all on AI power demand, we were already on this track before that. How convenient that China holds all the REE cards now.
I live in the PMJ grid area and most of our problems here are poor planning and poor choices made by politicians. You know who is hurt by high energy prices? The poor and middle class. I can afford these high prices, but the lower rungs suffer the most. For all the bluster from some politicians that the dreaded billionaires are the cause of all evils, all the politicians need to do is look in the mirror. It is politicians who make nuclear expensive. It is not inherently expensive, it is all the NIMBYism that causes the expense. In China they just build it.
We are clearly of the same mind!
Interesting you say "Russia and china to fund the esg movement" - from my own research it makes absolute sense for them to do so (dependence on china for renewables etc, anti fracking in Europe, deindustrialization , etc), but I can't find any real indication that they have funded it overwhelmingly.
Do you know of any?
Pretty sure they do it by funding NGOs (main target supranational like EU/UN), but seems to be heavily obfuscated
The natural gas dependency angle is what people miss completely when they talk about electrification. Everyone focuses on the clean energy narrative, but the practical reality is we're just shifting from liquid fuels to a different hydrocarbon with tighter supply constraints. Been tracking Haynesville activity since mid-2024 and the producer discipline around sub-$2.50 pricing is totally different than 2010s behavior. The LNG export arb opening up is what changes the game structurally, tho it'll be messy getting there. One thing worth watching is how fast utilities pivot back to gas when SMR timelines keep slipping, because that transmission queue backlog is areal constraint that doesn't get solved with just money.
1000%
https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/crude-analysis?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Interesting. I missed this.
Good listening https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tyranny-today/id1708840168?i=1000743706502
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/americas-hidden-oil-empire?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/the-hidden-oil-glut?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/from-bananas-to-barrels-the-return?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/the-new-treaty-of-tordesillas?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/instance-replay?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
https://open.substack.com/pub/themonentaryskeptic703/p/the-gulf-of-america-why-cuba-may?r=1z5qli&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Operation Recalc launch
Good timing :) https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf
lng glut ahead? lng plants being cancelled. The most recent significant cancellation is __Energy Transfer's ____Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana__, suspended in December 2025 to focus on pipeline infrastructure, though it remains open to third-party development. Other recent cancellations/pauses include New Fortress Wyalusing (USA), confirmed stopped in late 2025, and Exxon's Mozambique LNG project faces delays due to security issues, with public updates canceled in late 2025.
Overbuild risk is a concern for sure, but it’s going to take something severe for the arb to go bidirectional and overcome the transit toll.
Great piece. I am also looking to play it via oilfield services firms that should get a boost to activity from the growing demand (while not being as levered to oil/gas prices). WFRD is my top pick.
Happy new year!