Re: Oil-Forward Curves & Holy Grails (or Lack Thereof).
Been having many discussions on Twitter about the forward curve/time-spreads of Oil, so I wanted to collate my thoughts into a coherent thread here.
First, let me dispel the notion that there is an easy, tried-and-true leading indicator/model for predicting price movements of Oil, or for that matter ANYTHING. Ridiculous notions of “stock-to-flow/halving models” for $BTC come to mind.
Second, let me dispel once and for all the notion that CURRENT FORWARD prices in the curve reliably predict FUTURE SPO…