Re: Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles.

Thinking about where we are in the Oil Cycle reminds me of this this Mental Model from Physics.

Econ cycles come in varying wavelengths; LT cycles = long wavelengths & ST cycles = short wavelengths.

ST cycles often oscillate within LT cycles.

In Oil, LT cycles are driven by capex cycles that have 5-10 year gestation periods and primarily affect SUPPLY. ST cycles are driven by the macroeconomy and primarily affect DEMAND.