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ORDERED KAOS: Themes of the Week (3/26/23-3/31/23).

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KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.
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ORDERED KAOS: Themes of the Week (3/26/23-3/31/23).

"Risk-Free" Fears / Death of USD Fears / China Risks / Risk Rip / Oil Prospects / Shadow Banking.

Michael Kao
Apr 1, 2023
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ORDERED KAOS: Themes of the Week (3/26/23-3/31/23).

www.urbankaoboy.com
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Trying something new this week.

Instead of repeating the Musings of the Day first, I’m just going to jump right to what I consider to be the most important Themes of the Week with relevant support sprinkled in.

Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Theme 1:

One of the worst conflations/bad takes I see amidst the punditry is the mistaking of “Risk-Free” to mean “Volatility-Free.”

I felt compelled to write a treatise to debunk the wrong takes:

Kaoboy Musings
Re: Inflation/USD/USTs – “Risk-Free” Riskiness & Austrian Pipe Dreams.
In recent weeks, I have read many incorrect and misleading takes on Twitter by folks who are decrying recent interest rate volatility as some kind of “false advertising” of the term “Risk-Free” when it comes to US Treasury securities (USTs). These takes go something like this…
Read more
8 months ago · 28 likes · 11 comments · Michael Kao
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 3/26/23: Kashkari is 100% right on this. If you don't understand that even "Risk-Free" securities can have interest-rate risk, then you should read my pinned tweet and maybe not run a bank (or write a financial newsletter)!
Twitter avatar for @financialjuice
Breaking Market News @financialjuice
FED'S KASHKARI: THE INTEREST RATE HAZARD THAT BROUGHT DOWN SVB IS SOMETHING THE FED HAD BEEN COMMUNICATING TO BANKS.
10:15 PM ∙ Mar 26, 2023
158Likes11Retweets

The other important part of my Substack Post above is the notion of SUPPLY ELASTICITY being a prime requisite for GRC status.

The “Austrian Pipe Dreams” I refer to are the mistaken notions that SUPPLY INELASTIC commodities like BTC and Gold can replace the USD in a world that’s already deeply entrenched in SUPPLY ELASTIC FIAT.

Even if you “reset” the world’s monetary base to some “hard”/inelastic standard, it would slam the brakes on GDP growth in a way no country on Earth would accept:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Attaching @T_Castelluccio's thread around my post, because he gets it.
Twitter avatar for @T_Castelluccio
Tony Castelluccio @T_Castelluccio
This brings up a crucial point I thk so many miss. The inelastic supply of BTC, is the exact reason it can never be used as a currency/money for a country. IMO BTC has its spot in a portfolio will continue to increase in value, just like gold. But 1/n https://t.co/iwtxnlxOXe
8:35 PM ∙ Mar 26, 2023
17Likes2Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@steve_alarm @SantiagoAuFund @LukeGromen @DanOBrienPoker @BurggrabenH That’s where the Hayekian vision goes horribly wrong. Yes it means continual debasement, but OVER TIME. The alternatives without that elasticity would crater IMMEDIATELY upon concentrated liquidity-necessitated selling.
6:53 PM ∙ Mar 24, 2023

Theme 2:

The other big, big theme (related to Theme 1) this week is the notion that the USD will be supplanted by a new GRC, given all the hoopla surrounding China’s recent “deals” with Brazil, Russia, etc.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, “the rumors of the USD’s death are greatly exaggerated.”

Some thoughts follow:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 3/28/23: Talk of a new regime with CNY unseating the USD as GRC has reached a fever pitch with Xi’s recent courting of Putin and MbS. I’ve written at length why that won’t happen. Here’s another funny but accurate take by @ChinaBeigeBook :
Image
1:18 PM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
121Likes26Retweets

Everyone and their kid brother seems to have an opinion on when the USD Standard will give way to some newfangled Standard. Too bad that’s been happening for DECADES.

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
USD Doomsayers, please meet my friend Godot. He promises to be on time this time after the last 40 no-shows.
Twitter avatar for @JavierBlas
Javier Blas @JavierBlas
While searching for a story about Exportkhleb, the Soviet grain trading body, I stumbled into the below item about the petro-dollar. The date is 1975. Consider it when you read in the blogosphere about the inminent collapse of the petro-dollar and the rise of the petro-yuan. https://t.co/m14HFn1vRg
2:00 PM ∙ Mar 29, 2023
45Likes5Retweets

What’s going to replace the USD in the world of FIAT? RISC?

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Indeed. Back to what I started today's Musing with. Forget BRICS. This is an even better GRC contender: RISC!
Twitter avatar for @SpecialSitsNews
Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) @SpecialSitsNews
Guyzzzz... "Russia, Iran, Saudi and China are going to create another reserve currency..." https://t.co/EcFk9OOX06
10:27 PM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
42Likes2Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Prediction: It's gonna be a game of Hot Potato to see who dumps the other country's currency first. The grass is definitely not always greener. BRL on the left. CNY on the right.
Image
Image
Twitter avatar for @unusual_whales
unusual_whales @unusual_whales
BREAKING: China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary,
1:32 AM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
44Likes8Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
If these "RISC" countries actually box themselves into illiquid roach motel currencies/inelastic commodities like Gold beyond token headline amounts, you might ironically see a behind-the-scenes game of Hot Potato scrambling back into the USD!
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Indeed. Back to what I started today's Musing with. Forget BRICS. This is an even better GRC contender: RISC! https://t.co/XtjMzEgnWm
1:53 AM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
28Likes3Retweets

The issue is more than simply a lack of credible alternatives. It comes back to WHY the world has ORGANICALLY chosen the trust the USD — despite a recent over-reliance on sanctions.

Trust in the USD Standard is based on NATIONAL POWER, which has deep roots.

ICYMI, please have a look at my West Point Paper that describes how the USD Standard came about and why we don’t need to resort to financial sanctions to achieve our geopolitical interests:

Kaoboy Musings
West Point Paper -- Part 1/4
Introduction US national security is now firmly focused on Great Power Competition (GPC) and how to reorient policies to face the country’s challengers. Competition with China in particular is now front- of-mind, but the list of additional challengers will likely grow. The US-led Rules-Based Order (RBO) is changing in an increasingly multipolar world. Ne…
Read more
9 months ago · 47 likes · 9 comments · Michael St-Pierre and Michael Kao

There is a reason why the Saudi Riyal is HARD-PEGGED to USD. There is a reason why HKD is HARD-PEGGED to USD and why CNY is SOFT-PEGGED to USD.

When evaluating how someone like MbS might think in terms of putting his national treasure in CNY vs. USD, consider my Amazon Credit analogy:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 1/14/23: Pretty much of all the attempts to skirt USD-denominated commodity trade have been symbolic. Getting CNY/RUB is like receiving an Amazon refund. If it's $50, you're fine with getting an Amazon credit; if it's $5K, you're gonna want your USD back!
3:59 PM ∙ Jan 14, 2023
112Likes8Retweets

Theme 3:

Of course, China seems to take center-stage these days in headlines as the frontrunner to overtake US hegemony.

My take is exactly the opposite: China and Hong Kong’s Minsky Moment could be approaching. I continue to think that the risk of CNY/HKD DEVALUATION is higher than it’s ever been.

I warned weeks ago that this is the MUCH BIGGER Global Elephant in the Room:

Kaoboy Musings
Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.
While the past week in the financial markets has revolved around the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and the ramifications therein, I personally don’t think the extremely poor risk management practices of a bank focused on banking the most speculative sector of the economy will lead to a major domestic banking crisis. Consequently, I do not believe it der…
Read more
9 months ago · 47 likes · 17 comments · Michael Kao
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@Jkylebass https://t.co/3pv1FQpbnI "Hong Kong would now need a current account surplus of 100% of GDP to make good on its foreign liabilities, so Hunt does not see how the HKMA can defend HKD now, and the PBOC likely doesn’t have the USD to defend it given that China itself is very short… https://t.co/oRc0uLdS8t
12:06 AM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
☝️☝️☝️
Twitter avatar for @mnicoletos
Michael Nicoletos @mnicoletos
@Jkylebass @UrbanKaoboy The spread on overnight rates between #Libor and #Hibor is as high as it has ever been. The #HKMA needs to raise rates ASAP to stop money from flowing out of #HongKong (and out of #China). Either they raise and collapse their economy, or they don't, and money leaves. damned if… https://t.co/zQg5QafX8P https://t.co/kXBpQHVV5X
8:57 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Agreed @mnicoletos. This is why I said 2 weeks ago that $SIVB will be a provincial sideshow if China devalues. For all the hubbub about China/KSA doing trade in CNY, MbS is no idiot. No chance he puts his national treasure in something with implosion potential like CNY.
Twitter avatar for @mnicoletos
Michael Nicoletos @mnicoletos
@Jkylebass @UrbanKaoboy @SantiagoAuFund Money is also leaving #China. Hence, China is selling #US #Treasuries to find these USDs Blue: #US 3-month #Libor - #China 3-month #Shibor rate(spread 262bps) Red: CNY (#Yuan) @ 6.88 vs the #USD The Chinese currency is about to move much lower https://t.co/SJfcinCAW6
10:05 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
26Likes5Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Amazing depiction of the divergent paths between the Fed and PBOC. Forget about rule of law, sanction risk, closed capital account, etc. Interest rate differentials alone make holding CNY EXTREMELY UNATTRACTIVE. @SantiagoAuFund @Jkylebass @mnicoletos
Image
1:41 AM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
33Likes2Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
And yet China is still not done flogging its dead-horse economy. MOAR CNY PRINTING COMING.
Twitter avatar for @SpecialSitsNews
Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) @SpecialSitsNews
Pre-covid Chinese money supply vs US money supply M2 in USD https://t.co/fWCbTY6q7M
11:33 PM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
34Likes5Retweets

What about the often-cited bogeyman of China dumping its USTs?

Again, I have an out-of-consensus take on this. Not only do I believe that it’s NOT that big a deal, I actually think they would be doing the Fed a FAVOR by Bear Steepening the yield curve:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
According to this article, China has already divested 30% of its USTs. Guess what? US 10-Y yields 3.37% despite Fed’s best efforts at forcing positive real rates all along the curve. The sky, I assure you, is NOT falling for the USD/UST system.
zerohedge.comWhich Countries Hold The Most US Debt?Today, America owes foreign investors of its national debt $7.3 trillion...
1:20 AM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
64Likes8Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
The more I think about this, the more I think China liquidation of USTs would be doing us a FAVOR: 1. Fed WANTS positive real rates along the curve. 2. Higher LT Risk-Free Rates continue to counter Inflation. 3. Fed can lower FFR.
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@LukeGromen I have a totally different take on this from most. I think Bear Steepening, to the extent it's caused by other CBs liquidating reserves to defend their FX, will be doing the Fed a FAVOR because it allows them to NOT take FFR to the moon.
2:32 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
35Likes5Retweets

Read my original post about why a Bear Steepener would have been a “safer” way to fight Inflation than just hiking FFR alone:

Kaoboy Musings
Re: Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon.
I have written several Musings in the past several months on this theme and have collated them here in an ad hoc thread: This thread attempts to structure the argument more cogently and explain why I think a Bear Steepener might be the Fed/Tsy’s best hope of engineering a “Controlled Demolition” of asset prices WITHOUT engineering a CREDIT CRISIS…
Read more
a year ago · 2 likes · 2 comments · Michael Kao

Theme 4:

There’s also an overwhelming consensus that because we might be getting close to the Terminal Fed Funds Rate (FFR), the USD may be peaking generally. Once again, I have an out-of-consensus view and don’t think we’ve necessarily seen the cyclical highs in the USD.

I’ve been saying for months now that other CB’s are likely to OUT-DOVE the Fed and blink first in their respective Inflation fights. Here is more support of that thesis:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
So BOE hiked only 25 bps and rationalized it by citing "lower inflation expectations" when its recent print was 10.4%. I keep asking: Who's gonna OUT-DOVE the Fed?
Image
7:33 PM ∙ Mar 29, 2023
52Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Yep. What I've been saying: Who's gonna OUT-DOVE the Fed? Phew.
Twitter avatar for @RobinBrooksIIF
Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF
Markets see SVB and its aftermath as Dollar negative. That's true to an extent, as the Fed is responding with a dovish shift, as it should. But Japan and the Euro zone are much more bank-based and credit-dependent, so this - fundamentally - isn't a USD-negative shock. @econchart https://t.co/2P6t7ponhQ
1:57 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
20Likes1Retweet

Another reason cited for “Peak USD” is the recent drawdown of FX Swap Lines.

If anything, I think the recent tapping of FX Swap Lines/FIMA is a sign that the STRUCTURAL SHORTAGE OF USD is acute.

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Reminder that what is BORROWED via FX Swap Lines must be REPAID. With Interest.
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 3/21/23: PB analog for thinking about FX Swap Lines: The Fed is PB to RoW's CB's. CB's are SHORT USD, and it's become a hard-to-borrow. Fed extends special borrow facility that is expensive but allows CB's to avoid getting bought in. CB's still short USD.
2:00 AM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
There are some seriously bad takes that FX Swap Lines are somehow a manifestation of the weakness of the USD system. It is exactly the OPPOSITE and demonstrates how ENTRENCHED the world is in the USD system.
6:35 PM ∙ Mar 20, 2023
63Likes10Retweets

Note that China does NOT have access to FX Swap Lines and despite several takes that China might have been the mystery borrower of the FIMA facility (similar to FX Swap Lines with the exception of the foreign CB posting its USTs as collateral instead of its currency), I have serious doubts about that.

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@matthew_pines @Jkylebass Right. Would China willingly pledge its USTs to tap FIMA given: 1. What a huge loss of face that would be for Xi 2. What happened to his pal Vlad's reserves?
12:23 AM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
10Likes1Retweet
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@darioperkins @FedGuy12 I still think it's SNB. I know some have speculated PBOC, but I have a very hard time imagining we would allow that given China's active efforts to undermine the US at every angle.
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Interesting conversation here on last week’s mystery $60B tap of FIMA facility. Some think it’s China. I think it’s SNB. https://t.co/n23H0xa0VA
9:39 PM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
8Likes1Retweet

Theme 5:

Despite being right about SURGICAL MEASURES like BTFP containing the Banking Contagion, I have been DEAD WRONG about how the market would react and did not anticipate this RISK RIP which may only have been exacerbated by quarter-end FOMO.

My view (so far, seemingly wrong) is that successful ring-fencing will lead to “business as usual” in the Fed’s “Higher For Longer” modus operandi to take Inflation down; the markets clearly do not share this view, as Risk Assets have gone straight up the last 2 weeks — especially High Duration Risk!

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Sure seems like the Fed's Inflation Fight is gonna be a long slog, especially with the successful surgical actions taken in the wake of $SIVB. But markets seem very sure that the Fed's fight is done.🤷‍♂️
Image
2:11 PM ∙ Mar 31, 2023

I am both humbled and surprised by what Risk Assets are pricing in at this stage of the cycle, and I sometimes wonder why I even bother with macro hedges when “Animal Spirits” remain so strong:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
When the market still blatantly rewards first-order thinking, it's a sign that the Liquidity Lottery is far from gone, yet I'm the one that feels humbled by this. Amazed at the valuations and amount of rampant speculation still embedded in markets at this stage of the cycle.
7:44 PM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
26Likes2Retweets
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
You’d think the end of the Liquidity Lottery especially with this kind of aggressive hiking ramp would thoroughly rinse many excesses out of the system. Honestly stunned by where Equities are. Market always likes to always remind me how dumb I am.
1:51 PM ∙ Mar 31, 2023
61Likes3Retweets

That said, it’s been somewhat a Tale of Two Markets, and I have been taking rifle shots at battered (non-Bank) financials that seem to be pricing in GFC-like conditions where I don’t perceive there to be “forcing functions” a la SVB.

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Lest y'all think I'm a permabear, the bulk of the $ I've made in my career was from sifting through idiosyncratic wreckage amidst a macro shitshow. Definitely some of that now in some sectors. Crazy how much has happened in a month!
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Musings of the Day, 2/27/23: My favorite investment setup is where I get to sift through idiosyncratic rubble after an adverse macro shock. The current setup is the OPPOSITE of ideal to me: idiosyncratic anti-value with impending adverse macro and geopolitical overhangs.
9:57 PM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Very interesting market dichotomy: On the one hand, broad swaths of the market remain extremely richly priced despite a very treacherous macro environment. On the other hand, sub-segments of the market seem to have priced in Armageddon scenarios where they don’t exist, imho.
10:05 PM ∙ Mar 28, 2023
22Likes1Retweet

Theme 6:

My view on Oil (and Procyclical Plays more generally) remains cautious at best as we stare down the barrel of what I think will be a fairly hard landing later this year.

Note that I am talking AGAINST my own “book” here, as I have a big allocation to an Oil Private Equity.

I am suspicious of Oil’s recent bounce, as I think it was due to a supply disruption rather than demand-driven:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
@PauloMacro I'm rooting for this move, but fear that it's on low-volume and mainly based on this BOTAS disruption. I'd much rather be wrong on this and make more $, but alas I'm highly skeptical that this is indicative of healthy demand without which this move is unlikely to have legs.
6:55 PM ∙ Mar 27, 2023
60Likes1Retweet

Not only has the China Re-Opening proven to be a dud as predicted (see post below), I think global demand likely shifts down later this year:

Kaoboy Musings
Re: Oil-The Great China Re-Opening (Or NOT).
Yesterday, Lakshmi from Cap One put out her last note of the year and focused on PRODUCT demand. Remember that refiners consume Oil, and consumers consume products. Some sobering charts follow:Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…
Read more
a year ago · Michael Kao
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Oil Update from Lakshmi/Cap One: -US consumer still holding up from savings -> -Higher for longer -> -Demand will get hit when U3 rises by Q4'23 -China demand data still weak despite big stims -No Russian supply losses -Don't count on OPEC+ put anywhere close
8:21 PM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
7Likes1Retweet

Why do I remain bullish Oil longer-term?

Because I continue to believe that the Global Supply Curve becomes more INELASTIC over time (due to long-cycle capex starvation and diversion of resources to ESG) and that we will likely encounter a SUPPLY/DEMAND SINGULARITY in this next several years.

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Listening to Cembalest's recap of his latest Energy Paper this AM makes me more certain that the Oil Supply/Demand Singularity is closer than most people think, short-term headwinds notwithstanding. Will try to recap later.
Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
Although the macro headwinds heading into 2023 appear daunting, my longer-term outlook on oil remains bullish as we approach what I call the Structural Supply/Demand Singularity point, where even a recession-impacted aggregate demand level for oil EXCEEDS global spare capacity.
3:49 PM ∙ Mar 30, 2023
10Likes1Retweet

Theme 7:

As I’ve stated over the last several weeks, I continue to believe that the epicenter of the next crisis will NOT be in the Banking Sector — especially after BTFP.

I believe the icebergs will be somewhere in the Shadow Banking sector but have not been able to pinpoint the sector, so I’ve spent the week talking to a variety of folks from a wide variety of different types of “Shadow Banks”: RMBS funds, early-stage VC funds, life insurance companies, retirement/pension funds.

I have to think that someone is seriously off-sides somewhere, but FORCING FUNCTIONS OF ASSET/LIABILITY MISMATCHES ONLY MATERIALIZE WHEN THERE IS SOME KIND OF CRYSTALLIZATION TRANSACTION — like a Refinancing or a Project Financing.

CRE comes to mind as a big fragility, and I’ll leave you with this personal anecdote to ponder:

Twitter avatar for @UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy
I'm just wondering how many operators out there have been caught with their pants down in terms of having undue floating-rate risk. One fund I looked at ~18 mos ago was very sure the Fed would not hike above 2% and financed accordingly. 😳
1:45 PM ∙ Mar 31, 2023
34Likes1Retweet

Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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ORDERED KAOS: Themes of the Week (3/26/23-3/31/23).

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