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KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.

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Interview: Real Vision with Warren Pies, Redux / Oil & Omicron.

Oil Hike and Omicron Fears are Worrying Investors

Michael Kao

Dec 1, 2021

https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-essential-conversation/videos/oil-hike-and-omicron-fears-are-worrying-investors-vnlE?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=2021127_INTV_MR_TW_W1_LINK&tab=details

Featuring Warren Pies and Michael Kao

Dec 06, 2021 • 46 minutes

Taper tantrums, scary headlines, Omicron fears, and cold winters are making consumers very nervous. Michael Kao and Warren Pies agree that oil prices are going much higher. Nothing goes up in a straight line, but fundamentals support a rise in the price of oil, says Kao. Pies argues that if the Omicron variant turns out to be more deadly and more transmissible than expected, the world is in for a much bigger mess that will impact oil and other risk assets. Kao and Pies analyze the significance of the U.S. decision to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to lower prices, likening it to “spitting in the Ocean.” Pies suggests that bad policies are being implemented at the government level and by officials who think the oil and gas era is over. "If politics and optics are going to drive policy that is a scary place to be,” says Pies. What is the role of OPEC+ in this? Will other countries follow the U.S. decision to release reserves, or will they back out? These important questions are answered by Kao and Pies for investors who decide to bet on oil. Recorded on November 30, 2021.