Interview: Palisades Gold Radio with Tom Bodravics.

I usually don't do back-to-back interviews, but kudos to Tom for teasing out a completely different Macro conversation today than the one I did earlier this week!

This is my second time speaking with Tom, and he has a knack for asking provocative questions on second and third-order effects of the current Macro setup.

Our far-ranging conversation spanned many topics: recent FOMC and what US Economic Resilience implies for H4L policy and RoW, the role of Gold/Fiat, Sovereign Debt Endgames, etc.

YouTube:

Palisades Gold Radio:

https://palisadesradio.ca/michael-kao-the-four-horseman-of-u-s-economic-resilience-why-the-market-hasnt-crashed-yet/

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Show Notes:

In rough order of conversation, here are my referenced Substacks and Tweets:

On the resilience of the US Economy and why it portends “Higher For Longer” (H4L):

Welcome to the Vodka/Red Bull Economy where the Fed will be forced to administer the Monetary Depressant for far longer than expected given the Fiscal Stimulus that has happen and is yet to happen:

On the significance of STRIKES setting up for a Wage Price Spiral:

I am concerned about the Fed being TOO SLOW to end Inflation and that we see a repeat of the 1982 BULL STEEPENER eventually, where the market loses faith in the Fed’s ability to keep Inflation in check:

The current valuation of Equities is grossly overpriced relative to the Stagflationary/H4L Macro environment we find ourselves in:

Recession is better than STAGFLATION:

Phase 2 of the USD Wrecking Ball will be from RoW OUT-DOVING the Fed:

Why I am LT Bullish but ST Bearish on Oil:

The Geopolitical Risk to Oil is to the DOWNSIDE, imho:

On the BOJ’s inability to exit YCC:

Can Gold really replace Fiat once the Fiat Credit-Driven Economic Growth Genie has been let out of the bottle? I say no:

On my inability to figure out Gold due to its “Chameleon” nature, from my aforementioned Substack entitled “Revisiting Bear Steepening, Recency Bias & That 70's Show” — When Is It What??

Sovereign Debt Endgames can be prevented for MUCH LONGER than people think (witness the BOJ), and even in that case, the US dominates.

Thinking about Sovereign Restructurings can be analogized with the Corporate Restructuring model — BOTH sides of the National Balance Sheet matter!

Here’s that past interview with Grant Williams and Bill Fleckenstein I referenced:

The conversation then shifted to Demographics and China, and here is the synopsis to the event that I referenced: