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Interview: On The Margin with Mike Ippolito & Nicholas Glinsman / China, CNY, Macro

www.urbankaoboy.com

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KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.
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Interview: On The Margin with Mike Ippolito & Nicholas Glinsman / China, CNY, Macro

Great tag-team on a broad swath of Macro/Geopolitical topics: China, USD Wrecking Ball, BRICS, Bear Steepening, Sovereign Endgames, Economic Warfare. I include extensive show notes here.

Michael Kao
Aug 23, 2023
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Interview: On The Margin with Mike Ippolito & Nicholas Glinsman / China, CNY, Macro

www.urbankaoboy.com
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Great to be back on the show with Mike Ippolito, this time with fellow guest Nicholas Glinsman of Malmgren-Glinsman Partners.

We covered a lot of ground in this wide-ranging discussion: China’s divergent Macroeconomic/Demographic trajectory vs. the US and its implications on CB policies and currencies, Inflation, BRICS, drivers of the USD Wrecking Ball, potential for more Bear Steepening, how Sovereign Endgames potentially resolve, inconsistencies in US Industrial Policy and how to wage Economic Warfare, etc.

Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

You won’t want to miss it!

YouTube:

Apple Podcast:

Spotify:

Additional Show Notes:

We touched on so many different topics that I thought I would include relevant threads from the recent past:

On the impending CNY/HKD Devaluation back in March:

Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

Michael Kao
·
Mar 11
Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

While the past week in the financial markets has revolved around the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and the ramifications therein, I personally don’t think the extremely poor risk management practices of a bank focused on banking the most speculative sector of the economy will lead to a major domestic banking crisis. Consequently, I do not believe it der…

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Update to the CNY/HKD Devaluation thesis from July:

Re: USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg.

Michael Kao
·
Jul 22
Re: USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg.

Like many kids who grew up in the 70’s and 80’s, I was an arcade game junkie. One of the games I invested countless quarters in was the endearing Donkey Kong, in which a lovestruck Mario braves numerous challenges to rescue the Princess from Donkey Kong, who has taken her captive.

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On the Ivan Drago Fed:

Re: Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed.

Michael Kao
·
Jul 29
Re: Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed.

For the last several quarters, I’ve participated in several private roundtable discussions alongside a group of CRE developers/operators as well as public REIT CEOs. Here is the last summary I wrote up from last year: This week, I presented alongside such a panel of experts again, where I closed with my Macro views. This is a summary of my learnings and …

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On my Mental Model of Destructive vs. Constructive Interference:

Re: Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles.

Michael Kao
·
December 11, 2022
Re: Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles.

Econ cycles come in varying wavelengths; LT cycles = long wavelengths & ST cycles = short wavelengths. ST cycles often oscillate within LT cycles. In Oil, LT cycles are driven by capex cycles that have 5-10 year gestation periods and primarily affect SUPPLY. ST cycles are driven by the macroeconomy and primarily affect DEMAND.

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On the USD Wrecking Ball hiding in plain sight:

Re: USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?

Michael Kao
·
Jun 24
Re: USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?

This mini-thread summarizes one of my Musings this past week about the USD Wrecking Ball.

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My original Case for Bear Steepening from June, 2022:

Re: Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon.

Michael Kao
·
June 24, 2022
Re: Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon.

I have written several Musings in the past several months on this theme and have collated them here in an ad hoc thread: This thread attempts to structure the argument more cogently and explain why I think a Bear Steepener might be the Fed/Tsy’s best hope of engineering a “Controlled Demolition” of asset prices WITHOUT engineering a CREDIT CRISIS.

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On my point of relative 2s10s:

Incidentally, this is the chart of relative 2s10s I referenced. Even with the recent Bear Steepening, the US Yield Curve looks way too inverted relative to 1. US economic strength, 2. other Yield Curves compared with their respective economies.

Imho, this is the Global Reserve Currency/Asset Safety Bid in plain sight, despite all the nonsense De-Dollarization talk:

My thoughts on how Sovereign Endgames resolve:

Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames.

Michael Kao
·
October 9, 2022
Re: Inflation/Geopolitics-Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames.

I am not just talking about the obvious geopolitical conflicts like Russia/Ukraine or China/Taiwan/US. I am talking about conflicting ECONOMIC incentives between regions even among traditionally allied economic/geopolitical blocs. STRUCTURAL INFLATION is at the HEART of the matter, not just from an energy/resource scarcity dynamic, but also from the CONF…

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Finally, our West Point Paper critiques our inconsistency of policies:

West Point Paper -- Part 1/4

Michael Kao
·
Feb 25
West Point Paper -- Part 1/4

Introduction US national security is now firmly focused on Great Power Competition (GPC) and how to reorient policies to face the country’s challengers. Competition with China in particular is now front- of-mind, but the list of additional challengers will likely grow. The US-led Rules-Based Order (RBO) is changing in an increasingly multipolar world. Ne…

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Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Interview: On The Margin with Mike Ippolito & Nicholas Glinsman / China, CNY, Macro

www.urbankaoboy.com
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