Interview: On The Margin with Mike Ippolito & Nicholas Glinsman / China, CNY, Macro

Great tag-team on a broad swath of Macro/Geopolitical topics: China, USD Wrecking Ball, BRICS, Bear Steepening, Sovereign Endgames, Economic Warfare. I include extensive show notes here.

Great to be back on the show with Mike Ippolito, this time with fellow guest Nicholas Glinsman of Malmgren-Glinsman Partners.

We covered a lot of ground in this wide-ranging discussion: China’s divergent Macroeconomic/Demographic trajectory vs. the US and its implications on CB policies and currencies, Inflation, BRICS, drivers of the USD Wrecking Ball, potential for more Bear Steepening, how Sovereign Endgames potentially resolve, inconsistencies in US Industrial Policy and how to wage Economic Warfare, etc.

You won’t want to miss it!

YouTube:

Apple Podcast:

Spotify:

Additional Show Notes:

We touched on so many different topics that I thought I would include relevant threads from the recent past:

On the impending CNY/HKD Devaluation back in March:

Update to the CNY/HKD Devaluation thesis from July:

On the Ivan Drago Fed:

On my Mental Model of Destructive vs. Constructive Interference:

On the USD Wrecking Ball hiding in plain sight:

My original Case for Bear Steepening from June, 2022:

On my point of relative 2s10s:

Incidentally, this is the chart of relative 2s10s I referenced. Even with the recent Bear Steepening, the US Yield Curve looks way too inverted relative to 1. US economic strength, 2. other Yield Curves compared with their respective economies.

Imho, this is the Global Reserve Currency/Asset Safety Bid in plain sight, despite all the nonsense De-Dollarization talk:

My thoughts on how Sovereign Endgames resolve:

Finally, our West Point Paper critiques our inconsistency of policies: