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KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.

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Interview: Forward Guidance with Jack Farley & Alex Stahel / Oil, Macro, CNY/Oil Doom Loop.

Alex Stahel & I have a great conversation with Jack about Oil & Macro.

Michael Kao

Jun 28, 2023

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Description:

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets.

Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023.

Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023

(13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply?

(23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices

(31:05) European Gas Prices

(33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball

(38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis

(41:34) Chinese Oil Demand

(01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market

(01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk

(01:24:13) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.