* GSE Substack Directory *
Re: Fannie/Freddie-More Confident In SCOTUS Shield.
While it’s anybody’s guess if/when a 4th Amendment comes (my guess: between 1/5 and 1/20), I am incrementally more comfortable that SCOTUS will be a bulwark against the worst-case outcome of endless conservatorship/receivership.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Cake More Fully Baked Than You Think.
After SCOTUS, we all waited with bated breath to see whether SM (Steve Mnuchin) would write down the SPS prior to leaving office. The LA (Letter Agreement) that came out on 1/14/21 disappointed many, but I still had a slightly optimistic take.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-The Roadmap From Here.
In this thread, I’m going to interpret 1) what just happened and why, 2) what it portends, 3) what confirmatory tells to look for on the way. All opinions my own, as I don my financial engineering hat once more.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-The Path Is Actually Clearer NOW.
On its face, this claim may sound ludicrous off the back of a precipitous drop in valuations due to what some interpret as SM losing his nerve and punting to a hostile Admin. In this thread, I posit the exact opposite.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Dissecting Penn’s White Paper.
On 1/21/21, Susan Wachter released a white paper that showed how much the Overton Window has shifted in FAVOR of Recap/Release since her paper several years ago which contemplated a receivership scenario. Thoughts here.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-A PE “Perpetuity Option.”
As we wait for SCOTUS, the temptation is to focus on every little “weed” of information (just like the lead-up to 1/20) while forgetting about the “forest.” In this thread, I summarize my thoughts.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Thoughts on Don Layton’s “Living Will” Paper.
This paper is a must-read; imho, it reinforces my primary GSE thesis: Receivership is NOT an option because TINA (There Is No Altnernative.”
Interview: Real Vision with Tim Pagliara / GSE Prefs.
Featuring Michael Kao, Tim Pagliara, and Max Wiethe
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Unfinished Business.
I have some unfinished business to discuss that I couldn’t cover in yesterday’s interview, but more importantly, the US has major unfinished business in undoing one of the largest nationalizations in US history. Some comparisons follow…
Re: Fannie/Freddie-“Indy Switch” Is Key.
Got some color that while FHFA was indeed frustrated that SM didn't pull the trigger before leaving office, they were all indeed contending with the issue of not wanting to inflate the value of the cap stack prior to a cap raise.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Bracketing SCOTUS Outcomes.
I see 3 potential paths, ALL of which just influence timing/relative leverage in settlement discussions, because TINA.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Post-SCOTUS Thoughts.
To paraphrase my favorite stormtrooper, “This was NOT the legal opinion we were looking for.” Lots to unpack. Here are my initial thoughts.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Post-SCOTUS Ruminations From A Star Wars POV.
Been thinking a lot about SCOTUS ramifications and spent a fair amount of time today with various legal experts. Some high-level thoughts below.
Re: Fannie/Freddie-Fed Circuit Appeal on COFC Takings.
Just finished listening to the recording of today’s nearly two hour hearing. Link is here:
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