Discover more from Kaoboy Musings

KAOBOY MUSINGS and its associated podcast KAOS THEORY focus on the intersection of Financial Markets, Macroeconomics and Geopolitics. I've spent 30+ years as a trader/hedge fund manager and now manage money for my family office across many asset classes.

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FAQ about Oil, USD, & China.

Here is a FAQ list about Oil, USD, and China that people might have, along with my relevant Substacks that might help answer them.

Michael Kao

May 17, 2023

How can Oil get crushed despite being in a tight, backwardated regime?

Re: Oil-Forward Curves & Holy Grails (or Lack Thereof).

Michael Kao

September 5, 2022

Re: Oil-Forward Curves & Holy Grails (or Lack Thereof).

First, let me dispel the notion that there is an easy, tried-and-true leading indicator/model for predicting price movements of Oil, or for that matter ANYTHING. Ridiculous notions of “stock-to-flow/halving models” for $BTC come to mind. Second, let me dispel once and for all the notion that CURRENT FORWARD prices in the curve reliably predict FUTURE SPO…

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What happened to the Chinese Re-Opening?

Re: Oil-The Great China Re-Opening (Or NOT).

Michael Kao

December 22, 2022

Re: Oil-The Great China Re-Opening (Or NOT).

Yesterday, Lakshmi from Cap One put out her last note of the year and focused on PRODUCT demand. Remember that refiners consume Oil, and consumers consume products. Some sobering charts follow:Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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What’s a bigger global economic threat than the regional banking crisis?
Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.
Michael Kao
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Mar 11
While the past week in the financial markets has revolved around the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and the ramifications therein, I personally don’t think the extremely poor risk management practices of a bank focused on banking the most speculative sector of the economy will lead to a major domestic banking crisis. Consequently, I do not believe it der…
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Isn't China/BRICS supposed to displace USD?

Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac?

Michael Kao

Apr 7

Dictionary.com defines “Bric-a-Brac” as “miscellaneous objects and ornaments of little value.” Despite all the recent hyperbole about the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) nations forming a challenger to the USD, I believe it will amount closer to "Bric-a-Brac” than GRC contender.

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What are the ramifications of OPEC+'s recent surprise cut on Oil?

Re: Oil/Inflation-Supply/Demand Curves & OPEC+'s Fantasyland.

Michael Kao

Apr 15

Re: Oil/Inflation-Supply/Demand Curves & OPEC+'s Fantasyland.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about OPEC+’s decision to jump into the Geopolitical Mosh Pit with its surprise cut of 1.65 mmbpd of Oil production: Unfortunately for all of us and ultimately for OPEC+, I believe the Fed will ultimately win this Clash of the Titans.

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Tying all of these themes together, what are the ramifications of Oil's decline, the USD's dominance, and China's economic frailty?

Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.

Michael Kao

May 6

Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.

The Clash of the Titans between the Fed & OPEC+ could cause a Toxic Tug-of-War between Inflation and Deflation with a "Squid Game" outcome. I will build my case with several key observations.Kaoboy Musings is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Kaoboy Musings

Discover more from Kaoboy Musings

FAQ about Oil, USD, & China.

Here is a FAQ list about Oil, USD, and China that people might have, along with my relevant Substacks that might help answer them.

Re: Oil-Forward Curves & Holy Grails (or Lack Thereof).

Re: Oil-The Great China Re-Opening (Or NOT).

Re: Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop.

Re: Geopolitics/Oil/USD - BRICS-a-Brac?

Re: Oil/Inflation-Supply/Demand Curves & OPEC+'s Fantasyland.

Re: Oil/Inflation/Geopolitics - Squid Game Tug-of-War.