* Crypto/BTC Substack Directory *
5/21/21 - Re: Mental Models-Bubble Assets As Capacitors.
Re: Mental Models-Bubble Assets As Capacitors.
I mentioned that there many examples of โFinancial Herniasโ: โBubbleโ assets that have benefited most from low/neg risk-free rates and too much EXCESS LIQUIDITY: Crypto, NFTs, SPACs, high tech stocks/stonks, etc. The problem with the โHerniaโ Mental Model is that Hernias are injuries resulting from excess pressure. In financial markets, the injury comes โฆ
6/17/21 - Re: Crypto/BTC-GS Insight Highlights.
Re: Crypto/BTC-GS Insight Highlights.
Re: Crypto/BTC-GS Insight Highlights. GS just published a 50-page thought piece entitled โDigital Assets: Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder.โ My highlights follow. (THREAD) Itโs a comprehensive piece on the entire crypto ecosystem, but what I found most interesting was the valuation discussion.
6/20/21 - Re: Crypto/BTC-Supply/Demand & The โTantalus Tease.โ
Re: Crypto/BTC-Supply/Demand & The โTantalus Tease.โ
Much ado is made about the scarcity of supply of BTC. The 3 main sources of supply inelasticity are: 1) mathematical scarcity (21 mm coin limit), 2) HODL effect, 3) permanently lost coins. The mathematical construct seems ingenious in that it was engineered specifically to beat even goldโs high stock-to-flow ratio, as defined by โstockโ of existing supplโฆ
9/27/21 - Re: Crypto/DeFiโCherry Popped, First Impressions.
Re: Crypto/DeFiโCherry Popped, First Impressions.
Iโve been reading/studying this topic for quite some time, but to extend the analogy, there is no substitute for doing.๐ My motive to do this was 100% to learn about DeFi and 0% to speculate in this stuff, so my transactions were actually meant to incur slippage to see what it was like. And boy was there slippage โ in both time and $.
1/30/22 - Re: BTC/Oil/USD/MSTR-Tying It All Together & The โUmmwutโ Umwelt.
Re: BTC/Oil/USD/MSTR-Tying It All Together & The โUmmwutโ Umwelt.
Last year I got captivated by octopuses (these things happen) and read several books on cephalopod consciousness, and an interesting word caught my eye: โUmwelt.โ โUmweltโ: โthe world as it is experienced by a particular organism.โ For instance, it is hard for us vertebrates to envisage the umwelt of an octopus that has invertebrate, distributed intelligโฆ
2/21/22 - Re: BTC/Crypto-Playing Jenga With The Ouroboros.
Re: BTC/Crypto-Playing Jenga With The Ouroboros.
This thread delves a little deeper on these issues, buttressed by similar thoughts from JPMโs Michael Cembalest, for whom I have the deepest respect as an independent thinker. I borrow some exhibits from Cembalestโs recent piece entitled โThe Maltese Falcoin.โ
5/3/22 - Re: MSTR-The Tail Wagging The $BTC Dog?
Re: MSTR-The Tail Wagging The BTC Dog?
MSTR just reported Q1'22. Hereโs an updated capital structure: Debt: Silvergate SOFR+3.7% due 3/23/25 -- $205 mm Senior Secured 6.125% due 6/15/28 -- $500 mm Convert 0.75% due 12/15/25 -- $650 mm Convert 0% due 2/15/27 -- $1050 mm TEV: Total Debt -- $2405 mm
5/16/22 - Re: BTC/Crypto: The Beginning of the End of the Liquidity Lottery.
Re: $BTC/Crypto: The Beginning of the End of the Liquidity Lottery.
Iโve already written at length about BTC/Crypto valuation in several threads. You can find a directory of them here:
3/26/23 - Re: Inflation/USD/USTs โ โRisk-Freeโ Riskiness & Austrian Pipe Dreams.
Re: Inflation/USD/USTs โ โRisk-Freeโ Riskiness & Austrian Pipe Dreams.
In recent weeks, I have read many incorrect and misleading takes on Twitter by folks who are decrying recent interest rate volatility as some kind of โfalse advertisingโ of the term โRisk-Freeโ when it comes to US Treasury securities (USTs). These takes go something like this:
3/6/24 - Re: Investing - Institutionalizing the "Elephant Through A Mousehole."
Re: Investing - Institutionalizing the "Elephant Through A Mousehole."
Every cycle is different, so I donโt want to get too lost in the weeds in comparing present era market dynamics to the Dot Com Bubble in terms of valuations, prevalence of IPOs (or lack thereof), or the underlying Tech/Macro drivers. I also promise to not commit the heinous chart crime of overlaying one period of price action to another. To me, the dangโฆ